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Soccer Betting is a series of articles that describe some well known and well used statistical techniques that will help the soccer punter make more informed bets. Each of the techniques has its own advantages and disadvantages and using them in isolation will improve your chances of winning. However, together they will prove invaluable in your battle with the bookies. In each article we will describe in detail how a particular method works giving you enough information for you to go ahead and create your own forecasts. We will also give you information as to where you can already find websites that use this technique in comprising their weekly soccer betting forecasts.

The statistical methods described in this set of articles should help you to arrive at a better decision about the match, or matches, that you are betting on.

In this article we will be describing the Footyforecast method. The Footyforecast method was originally developed for the English Football Pools and attempts to eliminate those matches that will not be draws, leaving you with a shorter list of matches from which to choose your 8 from 11. This method was introduced to the world in 1999 on the original Footyforecast website (now 1X2Monster.com). This method is similar to the Simple Sequence method which is described in another of our articles in this series.

Here are the basic rules…

For each team work out the following, 1. Work out the total number of points obtained for the last N games. 2. Work out the maximum number of possible points for the last N games. 3. Divide the total number of points obtained by the maximum available and multiply by 100. 4. Calculate the forecast value. In (1) and (2) above N games could be all the home games for the home side and all the away games for the away side. Alternatively N could be the last N games including all home and away games for a team. The forecast value is calculated like this…

HOMEPOINTS = number of points for home team from last N games

AWAYPOINTS = number of points for away team from last N games

HOMEVAL = (HOMEPOINTS / (POINTSFORWIN * N)) *100

AWAYVAL = (AWAYPOINTS / (POINTSFORWIN * N)) *100

FORECAST = (HOMEVAL + (100 – AWAYVAL)) / 2

To calculate the possible outcome of a match based on the Footyforecast method the value is compared with the following… 1. A forecast value of 50 = a draw. 2. A value between 50 and 100 gives an increasing chance of a home win the closer to 100. 3. A value between 50 and 0 gives an increasing chance of an away win the closer to 0. There are a few variables to consider, for example the number of matches to use and whether to use all matches or just home for home side and just away for away side to name but two. You may wish to experiment with these values. By plotting actual resulting draws against the forecast it is possible to generate two threshold values, one for away wins and one for home wins, any values in-between these thresholds are likely draws. All matches outside these thresholds will be less likely to be draws. For example a value of 40 or less for away wins and a value of 60 or more for home wins. This would mean any matches falling between 41 and 59 may be draws. What this method does, with careful tuning by the user is to eliminate many matches which will not be draws giving you a short list to choose from. This method is best used where an English Pools Plan is to be used.

Here is a worked example…

The values shown are the points gained by the team for each game in a sequence of four recent matches, you of course could choose more games to base your calculations on. West Ham H4 = 3 (oldest match) H3 = 1 H2 = 1 H1 = 0 (most recent match) Leeds Utd A4 = 1 (oldest match) A3 = 3 A2 = 0 A1 = 3 (most recent match) Using only home games for home side and only away games for away side… FFPHome = ((3 + 1 + 1 + 0) / 12) * 100 = 42 FFPAway = ((1 + 3 + 0 + 3) / 12) * 100 = 59 FFPForcast = (42 + (100 – 59)) / 2 = 42 If our threshold values are 40 and 60 then for this match the prediction lies in the expected draw region and at the lower end meaning that if it is not a draw the most likely other outcome would be an away win. This may be interpreted as an X2 prediction, i.e. draw or away win, which some bookies will accept as a bet.

Now it’s your turn…

Of course you may choose to use different values to those shown above and by experimenting you may come up with better values to use. You may also choose to use all home and away games played by each team in your calculations instead of just home games for the home team and away games for the away team. You may choose to have different thresholds than those shown above. You may also find it beneficial to plot actual results against the Footyforecast method predictions to see how many actual draws fall in the away win, draw, and home win prediction zones.

If you have the necessary skills you could go away and build your own spreadsheet of data or even write a piece of software to take in results and fixtures and apply the Footyforecast method to your data. Or, if you’re lazy like me, you could grab some free software that already does this for you. 1X2Monster and Footyforecast have been providing this kind of facility since 1999. A total of seven different statistical methods are used to determine the outcome of each game played in each league, and a comprehensive record of how each method in each game performed is kept. Apart from how each tip performed within its respective league 1X2Monster also provides the league tables of how each league has performed in successfully predicting outcomes of games. The league tables of prediction performance are produced for home win predictions, draw predictions, away win predictions, and for overall predictions and are invaluable tools to the soccer punter when deciding where to target their European soccer betting predictions.

Here is a list of all the articles in this series…

Soccer Betting – How To Make A Profit Soccer Betting – The Rateform Method Soccer Betting – The Footyforecast Method Soccer Betting – The Win Draw Loss Method Soccer Betting – The Simple Sequence Method Soccer Betting – The Score Prediction Method Soccer Betting – The Superiority Method

Barcelona have nothing more to offer Arsenal skipper Cesc Fabregas to woo him away from the gunners, says Barcelona president Josep Maria Bartomeu. Meanwhile, Arsene Wenger, the Gunners boss, has claimed that the Spain star would stay with his team for another five years.

Dusan Pernis’s plate is full, with Fulham and West Ham showing consuming interest in the Dundee United goalkeeper.

Standard Liege’s Belgium international midfielder Steven Defour could soon be richer by £10 million, with Liverpool manager Roy Hodgson about to offer him the sum, to replace Javier Mascherano. The Argentine has gone public with his desire to leave Liverpool.

Mascherano himself is set to receive twice that amount from European champions Inter Milan. Curiously, the Italian club have a former Liverpudlian, Rafael Benitez, at the helm.

Manchester City want Aston Villa’s midfielder James Milner but the sides have different perceptions on the right fee. Villa want City to up their offer from £24 million to £30 million.

Carlton Cole will not leave West Ham for Stoke after the club have rejected the £9 million offering by Stoke for the 26-year-old striker.

31-year-old striker Craig Bellamy could soon succumb to Fulham boss Mark Hughes’s persuasion to join the team at Craven Cottage. Manchester City’s Bellamy has been contemplating a counter-offer from Tottenham.

Mesut Ozil declaration of his «love» for Spain could mean bad news for Manchester United and Arsenal; both clubs are chasing the young German star of the World Cup. Real Madrid could get the lion’s share of that love. Ozil has a year to go with Bundesliga club Werder Bremen.

Barcelona could lose Aleksandr Hleb to the Premier League; Hleb is set to swallow the bait from one of many English clubs fishing for the the former Arsenal midfielder.

Blackburn Rovers are set to host Sunderland at Ewood Park on Monday. In the game against the Black Cats, the Rovers will not have the services of the following players who are sidelined owing to injury: Dunn and Grella.

The sides are level on points; while Sunderland are eleventh on the table, Blackburn are thirteenth. But while Sunderland have just the solitary loss away to West Brom, Blackburn have three, one of those coming at home at Ewood Park.

Blackburn passing and shooting have been below par, with barely 60% (the lowest in the league this season) finding their target. Shots at target are also low in number with only Wolves ranking below Blackburn in this criterion.

That said, Sunderland’s away record in recent times has been very bad, with the Black cats winning just two out of 32 games played. And of the last ten matches played against Blackburn, Sunderland have only won two.

Sunderland also have injury concerns with the following players yet to recover from their respective injuries: Campbell and Maylor. In some good news for the club, Richardson and Mensah who were earlier on the list of injured players have been declared fit to play.

There is also a question mark over Darren Bent’s match fitness and manager Steve Bruce could take a late call on Bent’s inclusion in the team for Monday’s match, as the striker is key to the squad’s success. Bent withdrew from England’s Euro 20102 qualifier match against Montenegro on Tuesday, with a groin injury.

Steve Bruce will also have to decide on his first choice of goalkeeper, with Craig Gordon returning to the squad. Mignolet, who took charge between the posts when the Scot broke an arm ahead of the season, has done very well, especially against Manchester United aganst whom he kept a clean slate.

The following men comprised the Rovers’ starting eleven in their match against Stoke City on October 2: Paul Robinson, Salgado, Christopher Samba, Ryan Nelsen, Gael Givet, Bryan Emerton, Steven Nzonzi, Jones, Morten Gamst Pedersen, El-Hadji Diouf, Mame Diouf

The substitutes were: Hoilett, Nikola Kalinic, Martin Olsson, Keith Andrews, David Dunn, Chimbonda, Mwaruwari

Sunderland included the following players in their starting eleven in the game against Manchester United on October 2: Simon Mignolet, Nedum Onuoha, Michael Turner, Titus Bramble, Phillip Bardsley, Steed Malbranque, Lee Cattermole, Jordan Henderson, Boudewijn Zenden, Darren Bent, Ahmed Elmohamady

The substitutes were: Craig Gordon, Andy Reid, John Mensah, Cristian Riveros, Paulo Da Silva, Anton Ferdinand, Asamoah Gyan

Usually when you flip around the channels on your TV, you’re looking for something to watch. The great thing about having satellite TV programming is you will find something you want to watch virtually any time of day or night. And it doesn’t matter who you are or what your interests are because as the title states, satellite TV programming has something for everyone.

If you love sports, then you’ve got a dream come true. Whether you like golf or tennis, soccer or basketball, horse racing or auto racing, there are channels and packages dedicated to your sport. And if you love baseball and football, then you’ll never run short of great sports TV entertainment as there is channel after channel to give you complete coverage.

If you love cartoons, family and kid’s programming, then you’ll be amazed at just how much there is that’s available. Not only do you have a dozen or so channels specifically dedicated to kid’s programming, but some of the movie packages have channels dedicated to family programming as well. You’ll always be able to find something fun, funny and wholesome to watch with all the great channels available.

And if you like movies, you’ll love all the movie channels that are available. Classic favorites from the 1930’s, 40’s and 50’s. Newer favorites from the rest of the 20th century and the start of the 21st. Great movies just out of the theaters. And with Pay Per View, movies as soon as they can be released on DVD. Not only that, but with the on demand services, you can watch great movies anytime. If you love movies, you’ve got it made.

News programming and financial news has lots of great channels available. Whether you’re a conservative or a liberal, or riding right on the fence, you’ll have access to all the best opinion makers of our time. And with the C-Span coverage, you can literally see our government at work. If news and politics are your thing, then you’ve definitely got channels for that.

If you like history, or science there’s channels for you. Hollywood entertainment and celebrity gossip has their own channels. Home improvements and weather has channels. Basically, what it comes down to is the fact that if you’ve got something you’re interested in, there are channels out there for it. Check out all the great packages available and go find something to watch on TV. It’s out there.

Hey, if Jared Wright is going to only give us six innings or less every start, he better have more outings like last night’s against the Tampa Bay Devil Rays. Wright allowed only four hits, and struck out ten batters, while not yielding a single run to a potent D-Ray lineup. The Yankees only had three hits in the entire game, but they needed just one in this pitcher’s duel. This game went strictly by the book for the Yankees as Wright pitched six, then the bullpen did their part by pitching three innings, striking out four, and not allowing a single base runner. Mariano Rivera earned his 19th save of the season and lowered his ERA to 1.76. Even Kyle Farnsworth pitched pretty well for the Bombers!

Missing two of the biggest bats in their lineup, the Yankees need to manufacture more runs like they did tonight against Tampa Bay. Jason Giambi led off the fourth with a single to center field, one of the only three Yankee hits; Alex Rodriguez struck out, and then Jorge Posada moved Giambi over to second with a ground-out to third. Bernie Williams then stepped up and chopped a ball up the middle to center field, a RBI single that put the Yankees ahead 1-0 for good. Andy Phillips ended the inning with a strikeout, but the damage was done as the Yankees took a lead they would never surrender.

Jaret Wright pitched great for the Yankees, after surviving a rough first inning. Julio Lugo led off with a single to center-field for Tampa Bay; Carl Crawford followed with a deep double that Lugo misjudged as he stayed at second base. Crawford was visibly annoyed with Lugo’s error as Lugo was only able to advance to third base on the double. Rocco Baldelli followed with a line-out to Jeter; Aubrey Huff fouled out to A-Rod; Jorge Cantu was struck out swinging by Wright, ending the Devil Ray threat.

Tomorrow is the marquee matchup of the young guns for both of these teams: Kazmir vs. Wang. It’s going to be a good one!